The NBA MVP award has had its fair share of debates and controversial winners. Keep in mind, Michael Jordan only won regular season MVP five times, and LeBron James won it only four times. This year, some of the league’s top players may not even be eligible due to a specific number.
That number: Games played.
The NBA has a rule that requires players to play at least 65 games in order to be considered for the award. That rule could dictate the 2025-26 MVP winner.
Last year’s winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed most of February with an abdominal strain. He returned to action Friday and has played in 51 of Oklahoma City’s 62 games. This means Gilgeous-Alexander must play in 14 of the Thunder’s last 20 games to be eligible for MVP. This isn’t a crazy rate, and there’s still some room for the occasional rest day, but there is a shift in the SGA muscle or ankle away from being directly on the bubble.
That breathing room doesn’t exist for Nikola Jokic. The Denver star, who has won three of the last five MVPs and was in a close race with SGA last season, has already missed 16 games. He can only miss one more to make room for MVP consideration.
The conventional wisdom is that SGA and Jokic are once again a level above the rest of the league, and one of them will win MVP, unless someone else is eligible. Even Victor Wembanyama, who could be in line for MVP if disaster strikes, has already missed 14 games. Wembanyama can only miss three of the last 22 Spurs games to be considered for MVP.
So what does this all mean? For now, SGA is still a strong favorite for MVP. He has a somewhat good margin in terms of games played, while the other two do not.
SGA is -275 to win the prize on DraftKings, -260 on FanDuel and -250 at BetMGM. Those odds put SGA’s chances of winning between 70 and 75 percent. Jokic has somewhat longer odds (+450 on MGM and FD and +475 on DK), mostly due to the question of whether he will be eligible.
Cade Cunningham, who has led the Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of Wembey in third place in chances to win MVP, again mostly due to doubt about whether Wembey would be eligible. Cunningham is +800 at BetMGM, +850 at DraftKings and +1000 at FanDuel. By comparison, Wemby’s odds range from +2200 to +2500. Cunningham has played in 53 of Detroit’s 59 games, so he’s mostly in the clear in terms of eligibility.
Cunningham’s MVP odds are rising (+1400 a week ago), as he may finally win “As a default,” That’s the harshest way to describe a player who averaged 25.5 points and 9.8 assists over the potential top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The sad part is that the eligibility discussion has dictated more of the conversation around the MVP rather than the value and play of star players. SGA and Jokic are championship-winning alphas who have established themselves as the best players in the league. Wembley and Cunningham have been leading successful teams that have emerged as new title contenders.
However, the question of eligibility is of most importance, especially on the betting front, if you are trying to predict the winner. A bet on Jokic or SGA winning is a bet on their health for the rest of the season, almost regardless of how their play will be at the end of the year. At the end of the season, once we know whether they will hit that benchmark number of games, the debate may center on which player is actually the most deserving.
